Greetings on this last 'normal' day before the Kenyan elections. Things will certainly change no matter what happens. One good thing is that President Kibaki will still be the president even if the elections are contested by the candidates. In 2007 it was unclear who the president really was and that caused lots of problems. Also, Kenya has new Chief Justice and many people see him as a person of integrity who will be able to address legal questions that arise.
"Kenya remains the anchor state and the geopolitical pivot of the East African Community" according to a well known economist. It means that whatever happens in Kenya will have repercussions in the surrounding countries, especially those like S. Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, who depend on the port in Mombasa for commerce.
"The elections will just be the beginning of a long and difficult process for Kenyans". The country will be instituting a new form of government which will devolve power from the center to the 47 counties. This will require financing without undermining national development. It could be that people with ancestral inheritance in these counties will want to control all the government and development and exclude ethnic migrants. It could lead to increased negative ethnicity and weaken national cohesion.
One statistic that has really surprised me is the number of women in the parliaments of these countries. Rwanda leads with 56%, then Tanzania 36%, then Uganda 35%, then Burundi 30% and lastly Kenya with only 9.8%.
In order to win a candidate has to get 50% +1 of the popular vote and 25% of the votes in 24 of 47 counties. It is unlikely that will happen tomorrow which would mean that campaigning will continue with the two top candidates until a run off election on April 11th. For the moment all is calm here in Mombasa and we hope and pray it stays that way!!!
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